World population decline threatens Canada’s food sector

As fertility rates fall worldwide, Canada’s food industry must adapt to meet the challenges of a shrinking consumer base

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Climate change may be the most urgent threat to our agri-food sector, but a quieter, more insidious challenge is emerging: depopulation.

While extreme weather events—such as droughts, floods and wildfires—have already tested the resilience of farmers, processors, distributors, retailers and transporters, the demographic shift toward shrinking populations may have an even more profound and longer-lasting impact. And the emerging threat of population decline demands a new, forward-thinking approach.

For decades, the food industry has operated on the assumption that global population growth would continue, driving demand for food. Strategies have focused on expanding “stomach share”: the idea that more people means more calories, more diverse food preferences and increased spending. But what happens when that base begins to shrink?

More than 60 countries, including Canada, are already experiencing population decline or stagnation, driven by falling fertility rates. Even with immigration efforts, this demographic shift will have long-term impacts on both the workforce and the economy.

Fertility rates are falling below replacement levels across Europe, East Asia and parts of Latin America, with countries like Japan, Italy, South Korea and Bulgaria already seeing their populations decrease year after year.

Historically, food security concerns have focused on distribution issues and localized supply failures rather than an actual shortage of food. But as populations shrink, the question shifts: how do we maintain a vibrant, efficient food economy when there are fewer people to feed and fewer workers to produce it?

Canada’s situation highlights this dilemma. While we’re not yet in population decline, our fertility rate continues to fall. Without immigration, our population would already be contracting. Although much of the public conversation focuses on rising food prices and access to affordable groceries, a deeper, more structural issue is emerging: nutritional insecurity.

In 2024, one in eight Canadian households faced food insecurity, with the actual number likely higher.

Food insecurity isn’t just about hunger; it’s about inconsistent access to healthy, nutritious food. As food prices rise, more Canadians may still be able to meet their caloric needs but struggle to access the nutrients required for a balanced diet, highlighting the growing challenge of nutritional insecurity.

This leads us to another critical issue: disease-related malnutrition. This problem affects people of all ages and is closely tied to chronic illness and food insecurity. Estimates suggest that one in three Canadian children and one in two adults admitted to hospital are malnourished upon arrival. Disease exacerbates malnutrition, and malnutrition worsens disease, creating a harmful feedback loop.

As populations age and chronic illnesses become more prevalent, the demand for nutritional care—not just food—will increase. Malnutrition is no longer just a clinical problem; it’s a systemic one that highlights failures in how we approach food security and health.

So, what does this mean for the food sector? It means we can no longer rely on increasing volume alone. The industry must pivot from selling calories to delivering nutrition, quality and personalized value. With slowing or declining population growth, success will depend on understanding demographic shifts, health trends and evolving consumer preferences. Growth will no longer come from quantity but from innovation, specialization and nutrition-focused offerings.

Public policy must evolve as well. The current focus on food affordability must expand to include nutrition security—a consistent and reliable access to food that promotes health and prevents disease.

This shift goes beyond a simple change in terminology; it reflects a deeper understanding of what a modern food system must deliver.

Canada’s approach to food security, such as the Canada Food Guide, already emphasizes the importance of balanced nutrition. However, addressing nutrition insecurity means ensuring that all Canadians have consistent access to food that supports long-term health—not just caloric needs. This shift in focus will be essential for building a more resilient and effective food system.

Transitioning from a growth-based model to one focused on resilience and quality will not be easy. But if we fail to adapt, we risk creating a food system that is increasingly misaligned with the demographic and nutritional realities of our time. The future of food will not be measured in tonnes; it will be measured in impact per person.

Dr. Sylvain Charlebois is a Canadian professor and researcher in food distribution and policy. He is senior director of the Agri-Food Analytics Lab at Dalhousie University and co-host of The Food Professor Podcast. He is frequently cited in the media for his insights on food prices, agricultural trends, and the global food supply chain.