From political obscurity to a serious contender, Rustad’s Conservatives surge ahead
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Like some political commentators and columnists, I predicted the Oct. 19 B.C. election would be a razor-thin result. Almost no one suspected it would be a near-tie.
Premier David Eby and the B.C. NDP are currently elected in 40 seats and leading in 6 others. John Rustad and the B.C. Conservatives have also been elected in 40 seats and are leading in 5 others. Sonia Furstenau and the B.C. Greens finished with two seats.
It will be another week until the final tally is revealed. (The current plan is between Oct. 26 and 28.) Two ridings, Juan de Fuca-Malahat and Surrey City Centre, also face automatic recounts since the margin of victory was 100 votes or less. Both were won by NDP candidates.
The likely result? Eby will barely hold on to power for the time being.
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The loss of one NDP seat in the automatic recount ridings would create a tie with the Conservatives. The loss of both seats would put the Conservatives ahead by one. An arrangement between the NDP and Greens, which was discussed on election night, would establish a power-sharing agreement and prevent Rustad from becoming Premier.
While this wasn’t the result the Conservatives had hoped for, it was an astonishing result for a party that hasn’t formed a government in nearly a century.
The Conservatives used to be a political powerhouse. Founded in 1903, it won the first B.C. election contested by parties over the Liberals with 46.43 percent of the vote and a small majority (22 of 42 seats). The first two B.C. premiers, Richard McBride (1903-1915) and William John Bowser (1915-1916), were Conservatives. After a short period out of power, Conservative leader Simon Fraser Tolmie won the 1928 election with 53.3 percent and 35 out of 48 seats.
This political resurgence was short-lived. The main culprit? The Great Depression.
B.C., like other parts of Canada, suffered mightily. The net value of production and exports “fell by almost 60 percent,” according to the Legislative Assembly of B.C. website. Unemployment rose to 31 percent in 1931, which wasn’t aided by the fact that “thousands of men from across Canada entered the province looking for work, raising tensions with unemployed residents.” Tolmie was forced to set up relief camps while the unemployed were put to work to build roads and facilities.
The 1932 Kidd Report blew things completely out of the water. It called for massive cuts to social services that frustrated many struggling British Columbians who supported government intervention during the Great Depression. The report also heavily divided the Conservative government. Left-leaning Red Tories, who believed in strong government and more public sector involvement, found themselves at odds with right-leaning Blue Tories, who wanted limited government and more free enterprise.
The Conservatives didn’t run any candidates in the 1933 election. Some ran under different political labels: Unionists (Tolmie’s supporters), Non-Partisans (Bowser’s supporters), Independents and Independent Conservatives. This created a huge advantage for Duff Pattullo and the B.C. Liberals, which won 34 of 47 seats. The next biggest party was Robert Connell and the Co-operative Commonwealth Federation (now the NDP), with seven seats, with the smattering of Conservatives and Independents totalling four seats.
Few would have realized at the time that this election would dramatically transform B.C.’s political dynamic for decades.
The CCF/NDP gradually ascended into a major left-wing party and frequent provincial government. The Conservatives would briefly regroup by forming a coalition government with the Liberals during the Second World War. They largely fell off the electoral map by the early 1950s, and the last provincial seat they won was in a by-election in 1978.
Although B.C. voters did elect right-leaning federal MPs under several party banners, the provincial Conservative political brand floundered. The now-defunct B.C. Social Credit Party successfully filled the right-leaning void for decades. The Liberals, similar to their like-minded Australian cousins, moved to the right and earned many Conservative votes.
Yet, in what can only be described as an unexpected event, the B.C. political dynamic has shifted again. The major recipient was the Conservatives, who went from barely having a political pulse to becoming a real contender for government.
Rustad, an experienced former Liberal cabinet minister under Christy Clark, who became Conservative leader in March. 2023, successfully attacked Eby’s leadership. He pointed to the Premier’s policy failures (i.e. housing crisis, escalating crime levels, poorly managed drug decriminalization strategy) and announced several free market-oriented plans to help improve the economy.
The B.C. Liberals, rebranded as B.C. United under Kevin Falcon’s leadership in April 2023, quickly collapsed at the seams. Eight B.C. United MLAs, including then-caucus chair Lorne Doerkson, crossed the floor to join the Conservative Party. In response to the Conservative Party’s surge in popularity and to avoid splitting the vote, B.C. United suspended its campaign. Falcon endorsed Rustad, and several former B.C. United candidates ran under the Conservative banner.
The inter-party battle that crushed the B.C. Conservatives’ soul in 1933 was largely replicated again in 2024, this time within their main right-leaning rival, B.C. United. History does occasionally repeat itself.
Although the NDP will likely form the next B.C. government, one thing is clear. The once-moribund B.C. Conservative brand has come back to life and could take power before long.
Michael Taube is a political commentator, Troy Media syndicated columnist and former speechwriter for Prime Minister Stephen Harper. He holds a master’s degree in comparative politics from the London School of Economics, lending academic rigour to his political insights.
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